The error message points to Could not connect to net.tcp://localhost:1500/policy . The supposed solution? Making sure the ADFS service is running. See the irony here?

What worked in my case: changing the time of the virtual machine to be in the past. Since it was an Azure machine, I had to disable two services: win32time and Hyper-V Time Synchronization. Then, I could change the date to something in the past and I finally managed to get ADFS running. On Google Cloud, I recently encountered the same issue. I also disabled win32time, all Google-related services (bit of an overkill), quickly changed time and managed to get ADFS running.

You could perhaps obtain more info from the SQL or WID database > ADFS > ServiceSettings, which contained the thumbprints in my case.

Hint: you can open the WID database with SQL Server Management Studio (SSMS).
Connection string:
np:\.\pipe\MICROSOFT##WID\tsql\query
You should be able to authenticate using the machine’s local admin account.

Then I changed the date/time to the real world time again and ran Update-ADFSCertificate -urgent with success.